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Senin, 30 Mei 2011

Holcim Indonesia, Concrete growth, BUY Tp2,700 - CLSA

This is the most leveraged cement play financially and operationally. With 15% market share, 8.3m tons domestic milling capacity, only 68% capacity utilization in FY10. Balance sheet is deleveraging rapidly, with net gearing of 9% as at end 3M11 down from more than 100% 2 years ago. Our numbers 19% above 2012 consensus on higher price and volume assumption.

· Supplies 31% of Jakarta's cement demand, making it a good proxy to rapid urbanization and property development.
· Sales volume +2% YoY in 4M11, however domestic sales grew 25% (to 2.18m tons) as SMCB cut back on exports.
· Shifting sales mix to domestic markets will raise ASP and help offset energy cost headwinds. We calculate 1Q11 domestic ASP~93/ton (US$40 premium over export ASP). 1.7m ton capacity expansion by YE13 (Tuban, E. Java). Total capex US$450m.
· 53% of interest bearing debts (Rp2,017bn total) are US$-denominated. A 5% rise in IDR is equivalent to Rp53bn debt reduction.
· Rp4tn in legacy deficits were eliminated in 2010, enabling the company to pay out its first dividend in 14 years (Rp23/share, Rp178bn aggregate)
· Our fair value is based on 16.5x 2011/12 PE.

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