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Selasa, 31 Mei 2011

Alam Sutera : Constructing growth (Seedlings Initiation) - JP Morgan

Initiating with an OW rating and Jun-12 PT of Rp485 (62% upside potential): Despite establishing a strong track record, ASRI trades at a discount to its peer groups - in our view, due to the perception that it is dependent on a single development. Its new Pasar Kemis development, which we expect to be launched in 4Q11, should help dispel this notion and underpin a rerating of the stock to valuations more in line with its sector-high range of 22% RoE and 26% EPS CAGR. We initiate coverage on ASRI with an Overweight rating and Jun-12 price target of Rp485, based on a 19% discount to our NAV estimate of Rp600. Our price target implies an FY11E P/E of 16.0x and FY12E P/E of 12.2x.

Attractive valuation: The stock is trading at FY11E/12E P/Es of 9.9x/7.7x, compared to peers' FY12E P/E multiples of 10.2x-37.0x, despite a better ROE and healthy growth profile. We believe that consistent recording of earnings coupled with the successful launch of Pasar Kemis in 4Q11 will lead to a re-rating of the shares.

Strong earnings growth and potential upside to estimates: On the back of a projected 28% CAGR in marketing sales for FY11-13, we estimate that ASRI will be able to generate a 26% earnings CAGR in FY11-13. Our FY11-12 earnings estimates are currently around 10% above consensus estimates, as we believe that the company's marketing sales will continue to exceed expectations, driven by pricing power and lack of land availability.

Key risks: Key risks to our rating, earnings estimates and price target are: (1) a weak response of Pasar Kemis in 4Q11; (2) higher-than-expected operating expenses from marketing sales and wider diversification; (3) diversification risks; and (4) weak consumer confidence, driven by a potential fuel subsidy rise in 4Q11.

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