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Selasa, 31 Mei 2011

Land bill update, Serpong - the boom town - CLSA

Our on the ground specialist Amie “aka the komodo girl” recently met one of the land bill special committee members (report attached). As expected, the land bill is not going to be passed in 1H11. Some potential revisions are still being negotiated. The most important is the removal of “private sector” in the bill.

It appears that the bill may be passed in October at the earliest. Amie is still of the view that the bill is still on track to be passed albeit at a slower pace. Patience, a healthy dose, is required.

Unfortunately, our dire traffic situation and infra bottlenecks is to get worse first before it gets better. But this also means seeing a rapidly growing suburban areas outside of CBD Jakarta. More and more people want to reside, work, and study in these townships, if they have the chance. Our property guru Sarina points out that some these suburban townships are now developing at such a fast pace that would have been unthinkable only a few years ago.

Over the weekend, Summarecon (SMRA IJ) successfully launched Scientia Residences, SMRA’s first apartment towers in the Serpong area. Out of the 563 units (two towers), almost all were sold (556 units sold, total of Rp160bn). The units are selling at Rp220-500m per unit (about Rp10m/sqm or USD1,150/sqm ) Contributing to the successful launching is the presence of some universities like University Media Nusantara is in Scientia Garden. UMN currently has 3,000 students, and expects 15-20,000 in next few years. And this year, the distinguished Surya Research & Education Center will open as well. Developer Alam Sutera (ASRI IJ) had also launched its apartment towers across BINUS university in their township.

Even in its mature Kelapa Gading area, SMRA found it difficult to launch apartments a few years back (although eventually units got sold). But now we have apartment projects in Serpong sold in a heartbeat. In addition to apartments, shophouses are also springing up in Summarecon Serpong area. The rental yield for a shophouse is about 7%, not as good as the double digit yield SMRA’s fetches at its Kelapa Gading township but not bad at all.

Is this a great step towards self-sustainable township? You have the residential clusters and shopping malls. Add good schools, universities and hospital. Throw in a job and boom, it becomes a self-sustainable township.

Bumi Serpong (BSDE IJ) for example, just recently got Unilever (UNVR IJ) and gold and copper miner Freeport to set up headquarters at their township (BBCA and TLKM operational hub is already there).

No need to fight congestion to get to Jakarta. That’s the idea these developers have been pushing.

We like developers with large landbank in Serpong area, strong brand and execution. Top picks are Bumi Serpong (BSDE IJ), Alam Sutera (ASRI IJ), and Summarecon (SMRA IJ).

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