Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Senin, 30 Mei 2011

GEM STRATEGY: Positioning for 2H rally - OW Indonesia (Astra & Indofood) - Credit Suisse

MXEF currently at 1,133pts offering 19% upside to Sakthi Siva’s end-2011F target 1,350pts. Figure 12 page 5 shows Indonesia is now #6th most premium in GEM. Figure 17th page 8 shows CS GEM Model Portfolio including both ASII IJ and INDF IJ! At Rp59,300- ASII is trading on slight market premium 15.8x 2011F PER on +12% EPS Growth and implied 8% upside to SoTP Rp64,000 (implying 17.1x 2011F PER), I continue to like ASII as Indonesian core holding given largest index weighting, diversified domestic consumption and resources earnings, strong management and balance sheet, and justified premium valuation. Given short-term supply disruption from Japan earthquake, I continue recommending Accumulate ASII on weakness! Teddy Oetomo is forecasting JCI upside 9% to end-2011F target 4,150pts (16x 2011F PER). Teddy’s market screening on valuation and earnings expectation come up with Cheap stocks- BMRI (@Rp7,000- 12.9x 2011F PER), INDF (@5,450- 14.4x), TLKM (@7,700- 12.1x) & BBRI (@6,250- 11.5x) while Premium valuation stocks UNVR (@14,850- 26.0x), KLBF (@3,350- 20.5x), ADRO (@2,375- 18.5x) & BBCA (@7,250- 17.9x).

· Sakthi Siva (Report attached): We are positioning for a 2H rally. While it would have been good to see greater foreign investor capitulation (historically a good indicator of a bottom), we are positioning our GEM model portfolio for a 2H rally as we saw in 2004 and 2010. While early 2004, 2010 and 2011 were all associated with a peak in global leading indicators, we believe 2011, like 2004 and 2010, will also be associated with a soft landing. In our report of 24 May Re-Introducing Double Dip Watch, we highlighted that all seven indicators that we watch are suggesting a soft landing. In addition to the business cycle, another similarity between all three years is valuations – we are currently 14% undervalued versus 17% undervalued at the 2004 lows and 10% undervalued at the 2010 lows.

· We are Overweight sectors that outperformed in 2H 2004 and 2H 2010 rally. The sectors that did well then were Consumer Cyclicals, Industrials, Materials and Energy and we are Overweight all four of them. We are Overweight countries where inflation is peaking. Using the monthly momentum in inflation, we can divide GEM into three groups. We favour countries in the first group where monthly inflation is either flat or negative. The first group consists of Korea, Taiwan, China and Indonesia. In the second group is Russia where monthly inflation is around 0.5%. Despite attractive valuations in Turkey (second cheapest in GEM) and Brazil (fifth cheapest) and less stretched valuations in India, we are not as keen on the third group where monthly inflation is still stubbornly high at around 1%.

· In Indonesia, having added Astra Motors on 3 March to the GEM portfolio, we are adding Indofoods. While this stock is not cheap, it is at least less overvalued than Chinese Staples and is likely to benefit from the peaking in input prices.

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