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Rabu, 01 Juni 2011

ASEAN Plantations 2H11/2012 outlook; top picks - IndoAgri & Sime - JP Morgan

• The downside risk we highlighted in Jan. has largely played out: CPO prices have fallen by up to 16% from a high of M$3,927/t in Jan-11 with the anticipated production pick-up this year (mainly in 2H11). While CPO prices could still ease further in 2H11, stocks have generally underperformed YTD, pricing in the risk, and we see any significant weakness in share prices from here as a buying opportunity. We maintain our CPO forecast at M$3,400/t for 2011 and M$3,200/t for 2012 (spot:
M$3,500/t, YTD: M$3,540/t).

• Weather risks and positive soy-oil outlook to also provide support: Risks to production of soybean (and corn) in the US and rape-oil in the EU due to adverse weather, as well as our positive in-house outlook on soy-oil prices well into 2012, will provide support to CPO prices. Based on our inhouse soy-oil forecast and factoring in a widening in CPO's price discount to US$160-260/t (within its peak and historical mean discount to soy-oil) with the production pick-up, we see CPO prices well supported at M$3,200-3,300/t and with an upside of up to M$3,500-3,600/t in 2H11/2012.

• Capital management/M&A an emerging theme in the next 12-24 months? Strong finances and the recent two-year land moratorium in Indonesia could see companies investing in new markets (i.e. Africa), in other businesses (for the more diversified plays), or paying out higher dividends. Financially, Indonesia- and Malaysia-listed companies – namely AALI, LSIP, and KLK – are in a stronger position to acquire or raise dividends (see pages 4-5 for details).

• Top picks – IndoAgri and Sime; we have upgraded IndoAgri to OW following its 40% underperformance YTD as we see prospects for a nearterm share price rebound post the listing of SIMP on 9 Jun-11 (see separate note on Indofood Agri Resources Ltd: ‘What's next after SIMP listing?’ published today). Sime is our top large-cap plantations pick (see our note on Sime Darby: 'Good momentum in all divisions’ published on 19th May as attached). We are also OW on First Resources, Mewah and London Sumatra. Our key UW in the sector is Genting Plantations.

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