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Senin, 30 Mei 2011

Economy:May11 CPI inflation and Apr11 trade preview - Mandiri

The official Statistics Agency will announce Indonesia May11 CPI inflation on Wednesday (1/6), which we think will print another on-month deflation. We expect the consumer price to decline by 0.06% mom, bringing the y-o-y headline inflation lower to 5.78% yoy, as food prices continued to fall led by drop in chili price and appreciation in the local currency. Our forecast is lower than consensus but in line with the statistics agency’s initial estimates that expect deflation during the month.

Apr11 trade figure will be announced at the same day as well. We expect both exports and imports to be lower than the previous month’s, but exports may have fallen deeper due to continued decline in CPO prices. Earthquake that struck Japan in March may have started to affect Indonesia trade with Japan. We expect exports to have grown by 27.5% yoy and imports 23.1% yoy in Apr11. Thus, the trade surplus may have declined to US$1.5bn from US$1.8bn in March.

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