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Senin, 30 Mei 2011

INDOFOOD AGRI (IFAR SP): SIMP IPO dilution – Downgrade EPS & SoTP S$1.75 - Credit Suisse

CS is bearish with average CPO price assumption of RM2,950/t. therefore current August CPO Futures RM3,416/t may test RM3,100 recent low as expected seasonal peak CPO production during 3Q. On valuation, I think AALI at 14x ish 2011F PER is more attractive than peers as AALI deserves premium valuation due to strong Astra Group management, purest cpo play, most liquid cpo stock. Accumulate AALI on weakness, Hold LSIP/SGRO, Take Profit IFAR SP. SIMP IPO at Rp1,100 on 10.5x 2011 Consensus PER is also cheap.

· Tan Ting Min / Agus Sandianto (Daily attached): IFAR’s 90%-owned subsidiary, PT Salim Ivomas Pratama (SIMP), is offering 20% of its stake through issuance of new shares at Rp1,100/share. IFAR, which initially owns 90% of SIMP will be diluted to 72%, thus diluting its earnings contribution as well. We adjust down our FY11 earnings estimates for IFAR by 21% to reflect the IPO implications at IFAR’s level. Our FY11 earnings estimate is 27% below consensus’ as we believe consensus has not yet taken into account the dilution in IFAR earnings from the SIMP IPO.

· We now value IFAR as a holding company with ownership in SIMP (72% post-IPO), and SIMP owns a 59.5% stake in LSIP. Using SOTP valuation, we derive our new target price of S$1.75 (S$2.5 previously), implying 12.6x FY11E P/E. We factor in a 20% discount on IFAR against the SOTP-implied valuation given: 1) we now view IFAR as a holding company and 2) management is yet to provide its detailed strategic plan for the company. We maintain our NEUTRAL rating.

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