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Selasa, 31 Mei 2011

China power tariff hike - Impact on coal companies - CLSA

NDRC has confirmed the on-grid tariff hikes in 15 provinces by average 7%. The extent of hike is higher than earlier speculations. However, coal prices have also moved up in the meanwhile and we are raising our 2011-13 spot price assumptions. Also there is no tariff hike in over half of the provinces. We are increasing earnings for CPI (by 3-8%) and Huadian. CRP earnings are cut by 3-9% and Datang and Huaneng by 17-26%. CRP and CPI remain our top picks. Given CRP’s strong performance our target price upside is limited and we cut from BUY to O-PF. We are not assuming any further hike in 2011 and that could be the key surprise. ( )

Comments from our resource analyst Jayden Vantarakis

· Increases in China domestic power tarrifs are likely to support gains in domestic thermal coal prices, which have risen 10% in the last 2 months.

· This is positive for Indonesian coal players who are seeing steady regional demand growth ahead of the peak demand season in the second and third quarters.

· Indonesian coal producers with most leverage to export markets are BUMI, ITMG and smaller producers HRUM and KKGI.

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