Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Senin, 30 Mei 2011

ITMG:No production uplift in April - Mandiri

Indotambang produced 5.3Mt of coal for 1Q11, 20.8% of its FY11 target with production expected to accelerate in the following quarters. However, as per latest Indonesian Coal Report (ICR), April production was still at a slow pace of 1.55Mt. To make up with the slow 4M production, ITMG has to produce an average of 2.3Mt per month in the next 8 months, or an increase of 32.3% from average monthly production in the last 4 months. Limited specific catalyst make ITMG share price performance to depend on industry sentiment i.e : coal price. We have a Buy rating, as we are bullish on coal price and relatively inexpensive PE compared with peers.

Cost eased on qoq basis. Cash cost (Mandiri calculations) fell 2.6% qoq to US$64.7/ton on lower stripping ratio in Indominco from 17.3 in 4Q10 to 12.0 in 1Q11. As ASP was up 12.5% qoq to US$87.3/ton, operating profit jumped 81.9% qoq despite 7.5% qoq lower production to 5.2Mt in 1Q11. Compared with our FY11 estimates, cost has risen faster than ASP, therefore despite 1Q11 production was 20.8% of FY11 estimates, 1Q11 operating profit was only 18.3% of our FY11 estimates. Unless we see easing oil prices vs 1Q11 which averaged US$35/ton (crude oil, CL1), we might see earning downgrades as ITMG FY11 ASP guidance was only US$87-88/ton.

Still no improvement seen in April. Based on Indonesian coal report, Indominco produced 1.2Mt in April (average monthly 1Q11: 1.3Mt), Jorong 0.5 Mt ((average monthly 1Q11: 0.5Mt), while Trubaindo 0.3 Mt ((average monthly 1Q11: 0.4Mt). Unless weather improves, 25.0Mt FY11 production guidance will be a target difficult to achieve.

On the flip side, coal price is firming. The State Grid, China’s state-owned power distributor, reportedly said this week that 10 of its provincial-level power grids were suffering from severe shortages due to the drought’s impact on hydroelectric generation, including Shanghai and the heavily populated southwestern Chongqing region. China could face a summer electricity shortage of 30 gigawatts — the most severe power shortfall since 2004, the company said

No company specific catalyst seen. With lack of progress in renewing their coal resources, ITMG share price performance depends on sentiments on the coal sector. Ytd, ITMG still suffered from -8.1% return, while JCI posted +2.1% return. Recently improved share prices performance of Bumi Resources, could be a drag to ITMG, as ITMG has been seen as an alternative coal proxy after Bumi was mired in tax and debt problems. We kept our Buy call on relatively inexpensive valuation to its coal peers. ITMG’s FY11F Bloomberg consensus PE is 13.2x, while BUMI 16.5x, ADRO 15.3x, and PTBA 13.8x.

Tidak ada komentar:

Posting Komentar