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Selasa, 05 April 2011

TINS, Good FY10 results, but expect short term impact from Japan - UOB

Stellar FY10 results. Net profit +202% YoY (20% above consensus) on higher revenue (+8.2% YoY) and ASP (+30.4% YoY) despite the lower sales vol (-17.8% YoY).
Next catalysts:
- recovery in tin p'duction in 2Q/3Q11 on weather improvement,
- high margin in FY11 on: capped sales vol, high ASP as demand>supply, and development of downstream p'ducts. As per 2010, global tin deficic is appx 16k tons (vs. TINS' total pduction appx 50k tons - note that TINS is already world's largest exporter).

Choice of actions:
- take profit/switch for now because there'll be short term impact from Japan as it a/c for 9.5% total refined tin consumption.
- or just sit on it... the long run, however, global tin supply is still at a deficit, thus outlook for TINS is still positive. TINS is trading at 12.6x 11F PE, on par with
ANTM and INCO. Pick one?I like Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ/BUY/TP Rp2,900) for now on sturdy gold px.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 14.59

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