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Selasa, 05 April 2011

Rupiah appreciation: who will benefit? - Mandiri

Given the recent trend of Rupiah appreciation, which companies will benefit from this condition?

􀂄 Consumer companies with high imported raw materials like KLBF and INDF. A 1% appreciation of Rupiah will improve gross margin by approximately 20bps and pretax profit by 1.4%, while for INDF a 1% appreciation will lead to 3.2% increase in pretax profit.
􀂄 Tire companies, particularly GJTL as the company has around 76% of imported raw materials (yet 37% of its revenue came from export). We estimate improvement in gross margin by 30 bps for every 1% Rupiah appreciation and 0.6% increase in pretax profit.
􀂄 Cement companies, like INTP whereby pretax profit will increase by 1% for 1% Rupiah appreciation, while SMCB and SMGR, which only improved by respectively, 0.6% and 0.8%.
􀂄 We still have a neutral recommendation for KLBF, SCMB and SMGR and buy for GJTL and INDF. GJTL is currently traded at 2011F PER of 8.5x while INDF at 14.0x. Meanwhile, from neutral lists, KLBF is traded at 26.4x, INTP at 18.2x, SMCB 16.0x and SMGR at 14.3x, respectively.

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