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Kamis, 07 April 2011

Astra International - Record 4-wheeler sales in March - Deutsche Bank

Four-wheeler March sales: 81,706 units (+25% YoY; +18% MoM)
Four-wheeler sales hit a record high in March mainly following 1) negative headwinds from fuel subsidy removal for private cars, which in the end failed to materialize, 2) sales normalization post implementation of higher automotive taxes in several provinces, and 3) still abundant affordable financing especially with abating inflationary pressure and a stable interest rate environment. Meanwhile, Astra also grew in line with the industry, posting record-high car sales of 44,924 units (+23% YoY; +18% MoM) maintaining its market share at 55% in March. (Please refer to table for more details.)

Running better than our 2011 forecast
Both the industry and Astra showed robust sales in 1Q11, reaching 225k units (+29% YoY; +8% QoQ) and 125k units (+27% YoY; +9% QoQ), some 26% of our full-year forecast for both the industry and Astra, respectively. Nevertheless, we need to see more clarity regarding supply availability due to Japan's catastrophe, which is expected to start having an impact on sales in May.

Maintain Buy rating on Astra Int'l with TP of Rp79,000
We believe that Astra Int'l would be the main beneficiary from credit expansion, doubling middle income consumers and strong GDP per capita growth given its dominant position in the market. Nevertheless, we remain cautious over high oil prices and supply disruptions due to Japan 's catastrophe. The stock is attractive trading at 13.5x 2011F earnings, a discount of some 12% to the market.

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