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Senin, 04 April 2011

Perusahaan Gas (Outperform) - Higher price offset lower volumes - MACQUARIE RESEARCH

Event
§ PGAS reported its FY10 operational and financial results with reported net profit coming in at Rp6.2tr (roughtly flat YoY). On a clean basis (adjusting for non-cash forex and mark-to market derivative losses), FY10 net profit came in at Rp7.2tr (implying Q4 clean net profit of around Rp2t, up 4% QoQ). This is in line with our expectation and 10% ahead of consensus due to lower corporation tax rate (we and the company have used 20% corporation tax rate vs. consensus at 25%, given over 40% free-float).

Impact
§ Lower-than-expected distribution volumes in 4Q10. Distribution volume averaged 833mmscfd in Q4 (up from 809mmscfd in Q3). This is 10% below our forecast, bringing the FY10 distribution volumes to about 824mmscfd (vs. our 850mmscfd forecast). Further, transmission volume came at 785mmscfd (down 9% QoQ), bringing the FY10 transmission volumes to 836mmscfd, 6% below our expectation.
§ …This is offset by higher gas price. The distribution volumes shortfall was offset by the higher average distribution price in Q4, which reached US$6.9/mmbtu vs. our US$6.8/mmbtu forecast. This brings the FY10 average selling price to US$6.6/mmbtu (vs. our US$6.5/mmbtu forecast). We believe that the company will continue to benefit from the appreciation in Rupiah, as 65% of distribution pricing is done in US$ with the remaining in Rp. The current distribution price is set based on a formula of US$4.3/mmbtu + Rp743/m3 (or US$2.36/mmbtu based on Rp8,900/USD) exchange rate. This compares the distribution gas sales, which are mainly done in US$.
§ Distribution volumes recovery remains the key focus in 2011. Our recent conference call with management highlighted that volumes could be flat in 2011 vs 2010, which is below our expectation of 10-15% growth, due to the gas supply constraints from Pertamina (unlisted) and ConocoPhillips Indonesia (Unlisted) (See our note on the company dated 17 February, PGAS – 2011 outlook likely to disapoint). However, we highlight the potential for some of the gas from ConocoPhillips to be recovered in Q211 given the Jambi Merang field (to be allocated to Chevron oil field replacing Conoco) has delivered its first gas starting in early March with 20-30mmscd run rate.

Earnings and target price revision
§ No change.

Price catalyst
§ 12-month price target: Rp 5,200 based on a DCF methodology.
§ Catalyst: Recovery of distribution volumes, and completion of LNG project

Action and recommendation
§ We reiterate our Outperform recommendation on the stock and Rp5,200 price target given strong long-term volume growth outlook and and attractive valuation trading on 11x 2011E PER (a discount to the market at 13x). Further, even assuming a flat distribution volumes YoY (vs. our current forecast of 10-15% growth), we still see the stock trading on 13x.

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