Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Selasa, 05 April 2011

Strategy:Strong economy for now - Mandiri

From the top 5 recommendations in our March 2010 monthly picks, 4 made it to the top 10 performers from 40 companies with the biggest market capitalizations. This happened as our argument on government indecisiveness in phasing out retail fuel subsidy started to make way in news headlines. We grew cautious on the market as the JCI has reached its highest levels in USD term ever. With no positive domestic issues to support, the JCI will depend on regional or global sentiments. We still like companies that will gain from domestic demand, especially the benefactors of the rupiah’s appreciation.

Domestic-demand sectors rule. The JCI was flat with downward 0.7% bias qoq in the 1Q11. However the flat performance masked a significantly varied performance among sectors. Despite strong commodity prices globally, commodity sector underperformed our expectation. Individual issues especially below- expectation-FY10 results booked by coal companies such as Indika, Adaro, and lack of volume growth in Astra Agro Lestari, hampered performance of the sectors. From the top 10 outperformers from the 40 biggest market cap, 4 are banks, 4 consumers companies, and 2 are cement companies.

Deflation in March. Consumer price index declined 0.32% mom in Mar11 or increased 6.65% yoy, on lower food prices and the local currency's appreciation, deeper than what we and consensus have expected of 0.07% mom and 0.02% deflation respectively. Yet, core inflation continued to increase to 4.45% yoy in Mar11 vs. 4.36% yoy in the previous month. Feb trade data confirmed our economist’s view that the rupiah's appreciation (1.9% year-to-Feb) to the current level may have limited impact on Indonesia’s exports, since they are dominated by raw commodities. Despite fewer working days in Feb11, exports grew by 28.9% yoy (US$14.4bn), while import growth slowed to 26.3% (US$12.0bn). Thus trade surplus rose to US$2.4bn in Feb11 from US$2.0bn in the previous month.

Maintain index target of 4,160. We still hold to our JCI target which trades at FY11F 15.0x PE. However, for the short term, we are cautious on potential liquidity withdrawal from overseas. The Government’s economic stimulus by keeping fuel subsidies will keep domestic purchasing power firm although it could add to inflationary pressures in the future.

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