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Senin, 04 April 2011

Asia ex-Japan Strategy - Size Can Work in Your Favour - Citigroup

 Large-caps have outperformed mid- and small-caps ytd — We believe largecaps will continue to outperform mid/small-caps for the remainder of the year. Large-caps offer better value, trading at discounts on P/E of 9% to mid-caps and 14% to small-caps. In terms of ROE, large-caps deliver returns that are 3.5% pts higher than those of mid-caps and 5.8% pts higher vs. small caps. When it comes to cash flow, one of the better matrices on which to focus in Asia ex-Japan, largecaps
are the king of the castle.

 Large-cap earnings revisions have held up better — Of late, consensus earnings have been revised down. More so for the small-caps than the large/midcaps. Consumer small-caps suffered the worst earnings revisions, along with industrials, materials and energy. In the case of the latter sector, large-cap earnings have actually been revised higher again.

 Our focus remains on large-caps, North Asia and cyclicals — We believe foreign fund flows will return to Asia-ex once inflation and rate fears subside, which we expect to be towards the middle of the year. When foreign flows return, investors will likely buy large-caps first, before moving down the size curve. In this report, we highlight large-caps that look cheap on a cash flow basis and whose earnings have recently been positively revised.

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