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Kamis, 07 April 2011

sia Equity Strategy - Net foreign buying: Will China's rate hike stop the buying spree? - Credit Suisse

● We have now seen ten consecutive days of net foreign buying starting from 23 March and totalling US$7.8 bn. While in the past a surge in net foreign buying to above US$10 bn a month has been associated with tactical corrections in the one to three months after, we note that this foreign buying spree has occurred after a large degree of foreign investor capitulation. So after net foreign selling of US$8.1 bn in Emerging Asia (ex China) in February, net foreign buying for all of March was US$1.5 bn and so far in April US$2.9 bn. Significantly, on a year-to-date basis, foreigners are still net sellers to the tune of US$1.1 bn.
● If we break up the US$7.8 bn of net foreign buying over the past 10 days, Korea has seen largest net foreign buying of US$3.1 bn followed by India on US$2.2 bn, then Thailand on US$1 bn.
● We continue to prefer under-owned markets. If we look at the percentage of flows into a market over the past 12 months versus its MSCI weight, Korea still looks under-owned with 22% of net foreign buying versus a MSCI weight of 36%.

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