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Selasa, 05 April 2011

BBCA, Good bank, but always at a premium - UOB

FY10 results in line with consensus. Next catalysts:
- strong loan growth to continue in FY11 (expect 15-20%) supported by low LDR (55%)
- good asset quality - 76% of total deposits are CASA, hence a very low cost of funds (3%).

Premium is justified. Historically, BBCA is always trading at an extra +1.5 PB vs. peers because:
- it's the main transactional banking in Indo,
- it has the lowest cost of fund,
- it has one of the highest ROE (>30%)
- but having the lowest NPL (0.6%) vs. peers (>2%).

Comment: I like BBCA as it's always been prudent, thus always has a very good asset quality (and premium valuations). I'll buy BBCA on dips.BBCA is currently trading at 4.4x 11F PB vs. BMRI 2.6x vs. BDMN 2.7x. Marwan's TP is based on 5x PB, in line with 3yrs historical. Suggested entry: Rp6,500.

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