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Kamis, 07 April 2011

Perusahaan Gas Negara: Buy; Rp3,850; TP Rp4,815; PGAS IJ Additional capex for next two years - DBS Vickers

Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS) plans to diversify its business by acquiring a gas block in Indonesia to aggressively increase gas supply. In addition, PGAS needs around US$400-500m to build two LNG terminals in North Sumatera and West Java with total capacity of 1.5m-3.0m tons per annum. As such, the company might increase its capex budget of US$250m this year to finance its expansion.

The increased capex is in line with PGAS’ plans to expand gas supply. We estimate capex of US$400m p.a for FY11-12F to cater for the new LNG terminals. We estimate that the completion of West Java terminal would increase PGN’s gas distribution volume to 1,050 mmscfd in FY14 from 824 mmscfd in FY10. There is also a plan to build another LNG terminal in North Sumatra by 2013. We reiterate our Buy call for PGAS for its promising outlook and attractive valuation. PGAS is trading at a discount to regional gas peers, at 12x FY11F PE against peers’ average of 16x, but offers higher yield of 4% against peers’ average of 2%.

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