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Selasa, 05 April 2011

Bank Mandiri More light on FY10 results - Deutsche Bank

BMRI's FY10 NP 5% ahead of consensus; maintaining Buy
Mandiri booked FY10 NP of Rp9.2tr (+29% YoY, +20% QoQ), implying B/S ROAE of 24% (22% in 2009). This is 5% ahead of consensus and our projections. At the operating level, Mandiri booked NII of Rp20.7tr (+19% YoY, +3% QoQ), translating into a NIM of 5.4% (or 6.0% in 4Q10). PPOP reached Rp13.7tr (+32% yoy; 67% qoq), which is in line with our projections. We reiterate our Buy rating.

Strong balance sheet
Loans reached Rp246tr (+24% YoY, +6% QoQ), with higher growth for the higher yielding loan segments. Commercial and consumer loans grew 29% and 30% YoY, respectively. Deposits came in at Rp362tr (+13.4% YoY, +12.8%), implying a 68% LDR, while CASA declined 260bps YoY as the bank cut some expensive current accounts in 2010. Gross NPLs dipped to 2.2% (3.0% in 2009) with coverage of 208%.

Outlook in 2011
Despite lower yields for its VR bonds, overall we remain upbeat on Mandiri's outlook. At a CAR of 18%, Mandiri is one of the well-capitalized Indonesian banks,
allowing it to remove capital risks in the medium term. Other catalysts may include
gains from written-off asset recoveries (which could reach Rp2.3tr, including Garuda proceeds) and beneficiaries of possible approval of land acquisition laws as some committed infra loans of Rp11-12tr could be disbursed. This year, it targets loan growth of 22%, while NPL should remain below 3.5%.

Rp8,000 target price; Risks: higher NPL/COF, lower loan growth/yields Our target price is based on the Gordon Growth model (see page 4). Risks are higher NPLs, lower loan-pricing and higher COF.

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