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Rabu, 06 April 2011

Asian Banks Strategist - Where Is the Money, Honey? - Citigroup

 Robust credit growth pushes up LDRs – Growth in credit continues to remain solid; leading the pack in 2010 are: HK (+29% YoY), IN (+25% YoY), ID (+23% YoY) and CN (+20% YoY). Loan growth has pushed up LDRs for most markets. In fact, incremental LDRs in last three months have been very high for HK (340%), IN (193%), TW (180%), SG (155%), TH (150%) and CN (96%) – and have been well above current LDR levels, signifying strong credit growth and/or slowing deposit growth in recent months.

 Rising inflation driving liquidity tightness – The macro driver behind the tightening liquidity is rising inflation and central bank policy responses. Increasingly negative real interest rates are encouraging the flow of savings into higher-return investments (wealth mgmt, real estate, offshore) and stimulating loan demand. Central banks’ policy responses (rate hikes, reserve requirements, open market operations) further add to banking system liquidity tightness.

 Loans-to-lendable deposits shows where liquidity is tight – Looking at loans-tolendable deposits (LLDR) by adjusting LDRs for central bank reserve requirements, the balance sheet liquidity of banks look more strained. Highest LLDRs are in KR (117%), IN (109%), TH (95%), CN, TW and ID (87%). LLDRs for HK and CN are at new highs while for IN, TH and ID are close to the previous 2008 peaks. Higher LLDR signify that banks will need to rely on wholesale funding and/or increase competition for deposits. On this measure, we believe CN, IN, ID, TH and increasingly HK look most vulnerable.

 Winners and losers – Looking at the markets highlighted, on this tightening liquidity theme, we would highlight larger banks with strong deposit franchises in China (ICBC, CCB, ABC, CMB), HK (HSB, BoCHK), India (Axis, SBI, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank), Indonesia (BMRI, BBCA), Thailand (BBL, KBANK, KTB, SCB). Banks that are vulnerable to tightening liquidity include MSB, CNCB, BoCom, BDMN, BBRI, BAY and TISCO.

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