Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Kamis, 07 April 2011

Bumi Resources Mineral - Incorporating better-than-expected FY10 results; raise price target to Rp830 - JP Morgan

• Better-than-expected FY10 results: BRMS reported an FY10 net income of Rp765bn, as against a loss of Rp209 million in FY09. The FY10 net income was significantly higher that our forecast of Rp361bn. The sizable difference is due to the smaller goodwill amortization charges (Rp600bn assumed compared to an estimated Rp400bn) and non-operating gains – such as forex, gains from the sale of PP&E, and
others, totaling Rp263bn.

• Raise FY11E net income by 33%: We adjust our model for BRMS by incorporating the FY10 results. With the actual FY10 net income more than 112% higher than our original forecast, we raise our FY11 net income forecast by 33% from Rp367bn to Rp487bn. Apart from the better-than-expected FY10 result, the difference in the forecast is also due to the lower debt outstanding (Rp 3 trillion) assumed compared with our original expectation of Rp5.3 trillion. The new forecast should be more in line with the reported FY10 debt outstanding of Rp2.2 trillion.

• Potential catalysts: We believe that the planned Newmont Batu Hijau IPO in 1H11 could be a catalyst for BRMS’ share price. The progress towards the start of production at Mauritania and Dairi could also re-rate the share price upwards.

• Maintain OW, raise price target to Rp830: We utilize three methods in our valuation: (1) recent M&A transactions at US$255/t.oz of reserve for gold, US$0.245/lb for copper, and US$0.424/lb for zinc; (2) global peer valuations based on reserve multiples; and (3) our SOTP valuation, using DCF (with WACC of 16.5%) for the JORC-certified assets and soon-to-be-producing assets (and non-JORC certified assets/long-lead assets at cost). These methods yielded a fair value of Rp977, to which we apply a 15% discount (to account for execution risk) in deriving our Dec-11 price target of Rp830. Risks: (1) potential project delays – regulatory
permits or technical site issues; and (2) earnings and dividends visibility from Batu Hijau during FY11E-FY12E. Maintain OW.

Tidak ada komentar:

Posting Komentar