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Senin, 04 April 2011

Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ) Buying more roads – BUY Tp4,200 - CLSA Indo

Despite doubling in the last 12 months, this is still the cheapest toll road operator in the region in terms of PER. As much as story of being a dominant player to capture all the growth in Indonesia is great, macro backdrop of lower cost of funding / risk premium is even more compelling giving valuation a massive boost. Our DCF assumes WACC of 10.7% (cost of debt: 11.5%, cost of equity: 15.5%,debt:equity 30:70) resulting in Rp5,200/sh valuation for the company. Clearly 11.5% cost of debt assumption of very conservative for a business that has low gearing and tons of cash flow.

Key Points from Report:
· Revenue and profit growing at 18% and 31% Cagr from 2004-2010; with EBITDA margin expanding to 58% in 2010 from 48% in 2005
· ROE has recovered post IPO to 15% in 2010 from 6.6% in 2007 while ROA grew to 9% in 2010 from 6.6% in 2007
· Acquired majority stake (52%) in Gempol-Pandaan toll-road project, which has 80% land clearing done. Construction targeted to start in 2H11
· Assuming 70:30 debt:equity financing, JSMR can finance the 38km Gempol-Pandaan project comfortably, with Debt/equity ratio peaking at 1.2x vs 1x in 2010
· Upside risk to earnings as cannot quantify new projects and land bill due to uncertainty. Land Bill is slated to be passed in this year July, or September latest
· TP of Rp4,200 based on a ~20% discount to DCF valuation, providing 22% upside. BUY

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