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Senin, 15 Agustus 2011

MASA:Strong sales volume - Mandiri

MASA booked 1H11 net profit of Rp122bn (+36.2%yoy, -15.5%qoq) in line with ours (50.1%) and slightly above consensus’ (53.7%) FY11F estimates. Gross margin declined from 21.2% in 1H10 to 18.7% in 1H11 due to lower ASP/kg, down by 14.2%. However, the company booked higher forex gains of Rp44bn (+246.6%yoy). Consequently, net margin was relatively stable at 8.8%. We roll over our DCF valuation to 2012, and arrived at new target price of Rp710/share. Our target price is translating into PER11-12F of 17.9-14.0x, while currently MASA is trading at PER11F-12F of 13.1-10.3x. We reiterate Buy recommendation on the stock.

Strong 1H11 results. MASA booked 1H11 revenue of Rp1.4tn (+36.8%yoy, +9.7%qoq) below ours (44.5%) and consensus (44.1%) FY11F estimates. While net income was Rp122bn (+36.2%yoy, -15.5%qoq) in line with ours (50.1%) and consensus (53.7%) FY estimates, supporting by higher forex gains.

Lower ASP/kg. Based on our calculation, COGS/kg fell by 11.5%yoy because of the slope in natural rubber prices and efficiency in direct labor and overhead cost. However, ASP/kg fell by 14.2%yoy, squeezing the margin from 21.2% to 18.7% in 1H11. Sales volume for PCR (passenger car radial) tires rose by 60.8%yoy to 4.5mn, supported by the 102.6%yoy rise in sales of tires with rim size of 16” , while sales volume for 2W tires rose 39.9%yoy to 1.7mn units.

3 potential investors eyeing 40% majority in MASA. Bloomberg reported that Hankook Tire Corp, a South Korean tire producer has officially submitted its plans to acquire MASA to the South Korean stock exchange. While local media reported that besides Hankook there are 2 other companies interested in buying a 40% share in MASA, namely Texas Pacific Group and Yokohama Tire Corporation. However there is no official announcement came from MASA’s management related with the news.

Reiterate Buy recommendation. Since the company’s share price has hit our target price, we rolled over our valuation to 12F but still maintain our forecast and assumptions, and arrived at new target price of Rp710/share, translating into PER11-12F of 17.9 -14.0x. Currently MASA is trading at PER11-12F of 13.1-10.3x or 34.0% discount from our new target price. Hence, we reiterate our buy recommendation on MASA.

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