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Jumat, 19 Agustus 2011

Adaro Energy: 1H11 net profit 47% ours and 50% consensus (ADRO, Rp2,400, Buy, TP: Rp2,800) - Mandiri

􀂄 Inline and strong result. Adaro posted 1H11 revenue of US$1,771mn (+35.8%yoy, +33.9%qoq) followed by net profit of US$268mn (+103.8%yoy, +45.9%qoq), which in line with ours and consensus. These were supported by combination of stronger sales volume in 1H11 of 24Mt (+10.4%yoy, +20.2%qoq) and higher ASP of US$68.1/ton (+23.4%yoy, +12.4%qoq).
􀂄 One of the top result in the industry. Robust bottom line mainly driven by nil goodwill expenses and lower interest expenses. Adaro’s 1H11 result is considerably one of the top in the industry after KKGI that reached 50-51% FY11F target, compare to other peers which only reached 40-42% of FY11F.
􀂄 Strong demand on E-4000. In 1H11, Adaro succesfully sold 2.6Mt Wara coal (52% of FY11F target of 5.0Mt). E-4000 with main customers from India, China, Korea, and Indonesia. In 2Q11 Adaro has made new contract from Thailand market for E-4000.
􀂄 Robust growth from mining contracting business. Mining services segment grew strongly with revenue up by 31.2%yoy to US$369mn, inline with overburden (OB) volume growth of 30%yoy to 41.56mn bcm mainly driven from Adaro which grew by 41%yoy on its OB removal and 22% yoy on its coal getting. While for third pary, OB grew by 18%yoy followed by 30% growth on coal getting.
􀂄 Improvement logistic supported by favourable weather. As we have expected that Adaro this year would make stronger performance on its logistic and supply chain learned from last year underperformance. The vessel waiting time continued to improve and now it had booked despatch in 2Q11. Rain days in 2Q11 dropped by 25%qoq followed by lower volume of rainfall which decreased by 18%qoq.
􀂄 Maintain Buy. Currently we still have Buy rating on the counter. ADRO trades at 15.0x – 11.4x PER12F.

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