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Senin, 15 Agustus 2011

Cement sector - compelling catalysts - CLSA

To celebrate her birthday today, Di Shui is giving us - another cement report – her fourth in the last few weeks!!

Di argues that having underperformed YTD, Indonesian cement producers now look ripe for a comeback. Valuations look lean after the market correction, trading on 12x PER vs 14x historically.

Key sector catalysts include record domestic consumption, recent ASP hikes, and easing commodity prices (~50% of COGS).

Top pick is Indocment (INTP IJ) : offering the greatest operating leverage and most dominant franchise in high growth Java markets.

Key Points from the report:

· Indonesian cement consumption peaked for a third consecutive month, +7% MoM to 4.4m tons. Total domestic sales grew 15% YoY in 7M11.
· Demand was boosted by high growth in Java (18%) and the bulk segment (+32%), underpinned by residential and commercial property development.
· Competition remains tepid. Foreign firms are not an imminent threat. Smaller local players are operating at near peak capacity.
· Laggard sector performance YTD is in part due to concerns over higher energy costs and minimal ASP rise (2-3% in 1Q11). A reversal in both trends may help drive share price re-rating.
· We raise FY11 domestic sales growth to 12%, from 8%. The sector is poised for 15% YoY aggregate NP growth.
· Upgrade INTP to BUY (TP Rp20,500). Maintain BUY SMCB (TP Rp2,750), O-PF SMGR (TP Rp10,400).

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