Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Jumat, 19 Agustus 2011

Indosat (ISAT.JK) 2Q11: Look Beyond the Bottom Line - Citigroup

n Underlying earnings were not impressive — On the surface, Indosat appears to be trending well ahead of the Street at 68% of Citi and 60% of consensus profits for FY11 with a forceful swing to profitability vs. the previous year. Numbers however were skewed by FX gains and a Rp425b non-recurring manpower charge. On a recurring
EBITDA level, we estimate Indosat trending at 48% of Citi estimates with 7% growth YoY. This just is inline with our expectations, but shy of official management guidance. We revise up our TP to Rp5350 on lower capex assumptions, but maintain Sell.

n Top line improves but bottom line quality was suspect— Indosat appears to have improved momentum in 2Q with mobile revenues rising a hefty 8% QoQ/YoY, outpacing peers. This was driven by a healthy 1.6m subscriber net addition for the period, with market share gains. Fixed-line segment however dragged down overall momentum,
declining 7% QoQ/13% YoY on a weaker US$ and material slippage in fixed wireless subscriptions. In addition, overall bottom-line earnings quality was suspect with FX gains of Rp678b in 1H11 matching the semester’s profits of Rp682b.

n No guidance means risk of cuts — Management has opted to neither re-affirm nor revise guidance for the moment. Management however did highlight that the competitive environment has been more challenging as voiced by its peers. As such we do see room for the company to eventually temper its growth guidance levels with consolidated revenues of 4% and mobile revenue growth of 6% in 1H11 below previously outlined targets of 7-11% and 8-12% respectively.

n TP raised on capex assumption revision — We revise our TP to Rp5350 following continued capex discipline in 1H11. We revise our capex estimate to Rp6.3tn from Rp8tn previously as the equipment backlog fill we had previously anticipated has been controlled. This has resulted in a 12-18% EPS lift for FY11-13E on depreciation and financing effects. Our EBITDA estimates however remain unchanged. Sell maintained as we find valuations expensive vs. peers with no dividend yield defense.

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