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Jumat, 19 Agustus 2011

AKRA:Pricey growth - Mandiri

AKRA reported 1H11 results with core profit of Rp274bn (+95%yoy, 26.5%qoq), above consensus and our estimates. The net income figure represented around 55% of FY11F consensus and our estimates. Demand on petroleum volume (+81%yoy) and chemical (+13%yoy) drove revenue to increase by 73.5%yoy. We upgraded our TP to Rp3,000 but still maintain Neutral stance as the stock is trading at rich valuation of 19.8x-17.1x normalized PER11-12F. The company is on progress in establishing coal mining CV 5,800-6,100kcal with reserve amounting to 12bn MT (in 1st of 5 coal concessions) in Muara Tewe. Based on our valuations, the coal business will contribute gross profit of 16%-30% starting 2012-15.

1H11 core profit was above our and consensus estimates. AKRA posted 1H11 core profit of Rp274bn, (+95%yoy, +14%qoq), which represented some 55% of our and consensus FY11F. Petroleum business posted strong revenue growth (111.2%yoy, 8.2%qoq) supported by volume growth (67%yoy, -3.3%qoq) and ASP increase (37%yoy, 12%qoq). The company sold 997mnKL of petroleum in 1H11 and we expect it could achieve 2,034mn KL in FY11F, which is equivalent to 41.1% CAGR06-11F. Basic chemical business also performed well with revenue growing by 32%yoy and 13%qoq.

Coal-related business as growth catalyst. The company will mine coal and is building coal shipment terminals. Out of 5 mining concessions that the company has, one has 12mn MT in reserve with 1.8 stripping ratio (CV of 5,800-6,100kcal). For coal terminal business, the company expects recurring income from 3rd party logistic as there are a lot of coal mining concessions (±160) in the surrounding area of Muara Tewe. Currently, the company has completed only 2 coal terminals and will add one more in the near-term. By 2015, the company expects coal mining and logistic businesses will contribute 32% to total gros s profit. Our estimate on this c

Dividend distribution will bring ROE to higher. The company announced its plan to distribute second interim dividend of Rp200/share from 6M11 net profit. The dividend is translated into 7.1% dividend yield and is equivalent to Rp764bn in total. As the distribution date will be in 3Q11, the company’s ROE will go higher due to lower equity base. Note that, company 1H11 core ROE is 14.7%.

Upgraded price to Rp3,000 ,but maintain Neutral stance. We upgraded our TP from Rp2,000/share to Rp3,000/share due to strong growth in petroleum business and inclusion of coal-related business. Yet we still maintain Neutral recommendation as the stock has gone up significantly since our last Buy recommendation 3 months ago and now is trading at rich valuation of 20.5-18.0x normalized PER11-12F.

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