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Senin, 15 Agustus 2011

Lippo Cikarang: Key takeaways from analyst meeting (LPCK, Rp1,550, Not Rated) - Mandiri

We went to Lippo Cikarang (LPCK) analyst meeting yesterday and found some key takeaways as follow:
􀂄 With FY11F Rp150bn earnings guidance, LPCK valuation already looks cheap as it is traded at PER 7.2x based on its latest closing price, versus peers, KIJA and SSIA, of PER11F 15.5x and 12.5, respectively. This may even look more attractive, having solid 6M11 marketing sales of Rp700bn, where have reached 81% of its Rp860bn FY11F target.
􀂄 A subsidiary of Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ) with 51.6% ownership, LPCK is the benefactor of current high investment flows, both domestic and foreign, which outlook is seen to be buoyant.
􀂄 Having total of 735ha land bank in hand (residential 599ha; industrial 136ha), we think earnings can continue to be sustained, while taking advantage of company’s clean balance sheet that gives bigger room to further land banking (zero debt as at Jun11).
􀂄 Nonetheless, despite potential land bank of up to 900ha surrounds, limited access to available area has become the main hurdle for the expansion, especially for industrial, thus growth in near term will be pushed towards its residential.
􀂄 Short term catalyst for its residential development would be the new direct toll access to its residential area that is expected to be completed by Nov12. As at Jun11, company’s ASP for residential ranged at Rp1mn – Rp4mn psqm.
􀂄 Valuation wise, LPCK looks attractive in comparison to peers. Yet, for industral long-term story play, we still prefer KIJA and SSIA, given its main focus, bigger land bank and potential expansion for industrial estate development. We have no rating on LPCK.

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