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Minggu, 14 Agustus 2011

Crude Palm Oil Up On USDA Forecasts; More Gains Likely - PalmOil HQ

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange extended gains Friday, mostly due to strength in the grains complex as the U.S. Department of Agriculture slashed its 2011-12 U.S. soybean output forecast in a report Thursday.

Benchmark October CPO on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR22 higher at MYR3015 a metric ton Friday.

The USDA trimmed U.S. soybean yield to 41.4 bushels an acre, down two bushels from its July estimate. The USDA has not made such a drastic adjustment since August 2002, when it lowered its estimate by 3.2 bushels, ANZ Research said in a report Friday. This translates to 3.056 billion bushels, a 5.2% drop in total output, according to the USDA.

Fundamentals are also supporting CPO prices. Exports are likely to remain strong this month due to additional Ramadan-related buying while production is expected to decline in Malaysia as many workers are on holiday to celebrate the festival, a trader in Kuala Lumpur said.

BMD Crude Palm Oil (CPO) futures may trend towards the MYR3,200/ton level by October, tracking stronger summer demand, Barclays Capital Commodities Research said.

BMD Crude Palm Oil (CPO) will likely trade at MYR3,281/ton on average in 2011 and at an average of MYR3,350/ton in 2012, mostly due to expectations of strong imports by India and China as their inventories drop, it said.

Global demand for palm oil could rise to 49.9 million tons in the marketing year starting October, an increase of 5.5% from its world consumption estimates for 2010-11, Barclay’s said.

CPO’s discount to rival soyoil, well above the historical average of $120/ton, may prompt more price-sensitive buyers to switch to palm oil, a second trader in Kuala Lumpur said. Buyers usually reduce palm oil purchases during the winter as the oil tends to solidify but it may remain the preferred oil, given its wide discount, he said.

Market participants are expecting fresh cues from Malaysia’s palm oil exports data for Aug. 1-15 by cargo surveyors Intertek Agri Services and SGS (Malaysia) Bhd., due Monday.

In the cash market, refined palm olein for September was offered unchanged at $1,140/ton, while cash CPO for prompt shipment rose MYR20 to MYR3,130/ton.

Traded volume in crude palm oil futures on the BMD fell to 22,409 lots from 30,747 lots Thursday. One lot equals 25 tons.

Open interest was 134,409 contracts compared with 129,910 contracts.

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