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Jumat, 19 Agustus 2011

Bakrie Sumatera Plantations: 1H11 profit surprise next week (UNSP, Rp405, Neutral, TP: Rp400) - Mandiri

􀂄 We met with UNSP’s new IR head Mr. Hadi Susilo, who joined the company about two to three weeks ago. Prior to joining UNSP, Mr. Hadi Susilo was IR head at Sorini Agro Asia Corporindo (SOBI IJ).
􀂄 We are hopeful that Mr. Hadi Susilo can bring significant improvements to UNSP’s investor relations effort and disclosure ahead. Since the beginning of 2010, the flow of information (especially the operating data) has been somewhat inconsistent.
􀂄 We notice that some brokerage houses have dropped coverage on UNSP over the past months, possibly owing to the inconsistent data flow. Of the eight remaining analysts covering UNSP, only five made some changes to their target price or rating. Coverage from the other three analysts seem stale, with last update done in year 2010.
􀂄 We are pleasantly surprised to learn that UNSP already bagged Rp405bn net profit in the five months to May 2011, against a full year consensus of Rp579bn (FY11F P/E consensus of 9.1x versus peers of 12.2x). In the 1Q11, UNSP reported Rp132.5bn net profit. Its 1H11 results are being reviewed by auditors currently, likely to be out by next week.
􀂄 Granted that much of the profit surprise could be coming from one-off gains, namely FX and perhaps debt restructuring gains. On 12 July, UNSP disclosed to the IDX about the completion of its debt restructuring, for the US$210mn Domba Mas facility where Credit Suisses was the arranger. That said, the one-off profit surprise may serve as a worthwhile catalyst for UNSP, that trades on mere 0.7x PBV and one of the lowest EV-to-planted CPO plantations. We would flag the trading opportunities in the counter ahead of 1H11 results release.

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