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Senin, 15 Agustus 2011

Building material: Upbeat sales continue, FY11F upgraded to 7.5% - Mandiri

Domestic cement sales continued showing strong growth. Jul11 sales grew 17.1% yoy and 6.8% mom, lifted by area outside Java (18.3% yoy) where its growth outperformed Java (16.1% yoy) for the first time in the year. Thus, domestic cumulative sales accelerated to 26.8mn tons, reaching a new high of +15.1% yoy vs. 6M11 of +14.8% yoy. We may see rather softened growth in August, following fasting period when similar trend occurred at least in the past 5 years. However, looking at major support from bulk segment on sales this year, we view that growth can be more sustained toward year-end, thus led us to upgrade our 11F domestic cement sales growth to 7.5% yoy. Our favorites are still INTP and SMCB in cement space, given its high exposure in Jakarta and West Java which have been the main bulk cement growth area, in our view.

Outside Java growth outperforms Java. Monthly cement sales in Jul11 recorded 4.4mn tons, growing strongly by 17.1% yoy and 6.8% mom. For the first time in 2011, outside-Java (18.3% yoy) growth outperformed Java (16.1% yoy), mainly contributed from Nusa Tenggara where sales picked up strongly by 26.2% yoy (vs. Jun11 7.7% yoy), combined with other resource-rich regions, such as Sumatra (14.5% yoy), Kalimantan (19.6% yoy) and Sulawesi (21.4% yoy). This all led to another record high of domestic cumulative sales growth to +15.1% yoy, reaching 26.8mn tons sales during 7M11.

INTP and SMCB are solid, SMGR was a letdown. Benefiting from its strong presence in big cities such as Jakarta and West Java, as well as further expansion in ready-mix market through doubling the number of its trucks this year, INTP reported strong growth of 20.1% yoy and 8.9% mom. For SMCB, Jul11 growth was the strongest in 11F (43.6% yoy; 7.5% mom), on the back of its ability to tap upbeat growth in area outside Java, particularly in Sumatra (48.9% yoy) and Kalimantan (45.7 yoy), following its recent active silo expansion, notably in Batam and Riau, combined with switching its export sales to domestic. Solid sales from INTP and SMCB were in contrary of what shown by SMGR, whose sales growth was rather a letdown, growing modestly 7.3% yoy. We think less pricing power as capacity constraint has underpinned the slowdown. Overall, in the exception of SMGR, YTD sales reported by major cement producers have exceeded our 11F. Yet, this was offset with our price assumption of 5% vs. YTD industry of 3%.

FY11F domestic cement sales upgraded to 7.5% YoY. Given strong domestic sales to date coupled with sound economic fundamentals, we upgraded our 11F domestic cement sales growth to 7.5% from initially 5.6%. We think growth can be more sustained toward the end of the year on the back of major support from bulk segment that are more resilient, especially to bad weather which usually is a classic problem in 2H of the year.

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