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Jumat, 19 Agustus 2011

ADRO (TP Rp2,050) : 1H11 ? above expectation from higher ASP - Credit Suisse

● Above our expectation, in-line with market. ADRO 1H11 net profit of US$268 mn (47.2% QoQ, 405% YoY) is above our expectation, at 56% of our 2011E earnings, in-line with market at 49% of consensus’ forecast.
● Higher-than-expected ASP and other income. Strong result is contributed by increase in sales volume (20.2% QoQ), ASP (12.6% QoQ) offsetting increase in cash cost ex royalties(6.3% QoQ). Higher ASP is due to new benchmark negotiated in 2Q11,
which is also retroactively applied from 1Q11. Cash cost comes in line within our forecast.
● Non-operational risks. ADRO settled a customer claim of US$153 mn in August due to regulatory changes in pricing. ADRO also entered a fuel swap contract on 7 June 2011, when Brent crude was averaged at ~US$115/bboe for the week. If fuel price continues to weaken, we expect impacts on earnings in 2H11.
● We maintain our target price and UNDERPERFORM rating pending further review of our forecast numbers.

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