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Senin, 15 Agustus 2011

Cash from US mutual funds - BNP Paribas

In line with our argument that the US is the number one exporter of equity capital to the world and in particular to Asia (see our recent Asia Macro Matters note “US investors are no.1 in Asia” dated 22 July), it is interesting to see that US mutual fund investments into equities do not appear to be over-stretched or over-invested. As of June 2011, the total net assets of the US long-term mutual fund industry amounted to USD12.2t, out of which USD5.9t is invested in equities. As a percentage share this is about 49% in June, nowhere near the previous peak of 60% in August 2000 (just before the bursting of the tech bubble) and 58% in May 2007 (just before the start of the US housing market bubble burst). A shift to 56% would result in USD932b flowing into equities. We believe some of these funds will surely find their way into Asia.

Our view of this potential shift to equities is mainly driven by the recent decision of the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low well into 2013. The low interest rate for another two more years will eventually induce US mutual funds to switch out of their assets in money market funds that are going to earn their investors next to nothing. As of June, there is more than USD2.7t invested in money market funds or 22% of the total assets of US mutual funds.
We believe this represents an over-investment which will be pared down once sentiment towards equities recovers.

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