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Jumat, 19 Agustus 2011

Corporate Result Flash Indosat - Bahana

2Q11 performance
§ ISAT reported poor 2Q11 operating results which were below our and consensus expectations, although net profit was roughly in line with our estimate helped by FX gain of IDR218b.

§ 2Q11 cellular revenue growth of 7.5% q-q resulted in overall revenue growth of 6% q-q and 5% y-y, in line with our and consensus forecasts. This brought 1H11 total top line to IDR10t, up 4% y-y.

§ As growth in operating expenses outstripped top line growth, ISAT experienced margin deterioration across the board with 2Q EBITDA margin down to 44% from 45.6% in 1Q11 and operating margin contraction to 12.9% from 13.7% in 1Q11.

EXCL is keen on taking over ISAT’s no. 2 market share status this year. This is likely to result in further operating weakness in our view. Additionally, we retain our view that ISAT, not as the No. 2 player behind Telkomsel to foray outside of Java, will continue to struggle in 2011-12. With 1H11 capex of IDR2.5t, down 16% y-y, we expect acceleration in spending ahead to cater to surging data requirements.

Recommendation and valuation
With 1H11 net gearing of 110%, interest charges will be a challenge, making the company’s tower divestment crucial to improve its negative 1H11 cashflow. Although 1H11 bottom line were some 10-12% higher than consensus, we are not impressed by ISAT’s operating performance. On valuation, the stock remains unattractive on 2012 EV/EBITDA of 5.2x and 21.7x 2012 PE. Maintain REDUCE.

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