Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Selasa, 11 Januari 2011

The Wall Street Journal Morgan Stanley: Here’s Where We Think Stocks Go in 2011

Morgan Stanley’s new top U.S. equity strategist Adam Parker — former head of research at Sanford C. Bernstein — is out with his opening salvo of notes on the markets for the storied Wall Street firm.

Parker pegs his 2011 target for the S&P at 1238, roughly 2% lower than the benchmark index’s level today.
Parker’s restrained view on stocks stands in opposition to more bullish calls from some of his counterparts on the street. Goldman’s 2011 target is 1450. Deutsche Bank — the most bullish we’ve seen — is 1550. J.P. Morgan, Barclays and BofA are all 1400 or higher. Credit Suisse’s Douglas Cliggott, who participated in a MarketBeat Q&A recently, is more dour on the market’s prospects. He expects that 2011 will see the S&P end at 1250, about the same neighborhood as Parker.

Parker’s read on the S&P stems from a somewhat more subdued view on earnings than the norm. He expects that 2011 will see the S&P bring in roughly $93 in earnings, that’s below the roughly $96 consensus expectations for earnings by the end of 2011. Looking further out — to 2012 — Parker sees earnings a lot less optimistically than most of the stock prognosticators, expecting $98 versus the consensus $109.51 that Thomson Reuters currently cites.
Parker writes:
While EPS growth is likely to occur, the consensus bottom-up expectations appear to be too optimistic. We expect the growth rate for EPS in 2012 to be well below the growth rate in 2011 and below consensus. Primarily, our cautious view on earnings, beginning in the second half of 2011, stems from our belief that incremental margins for most sectors will be below what is embedded in consensus.

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