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Kamis, 13 Januari 2011

CLSA Global Mediacom (BMTR IJ), pay TV dominator

Jessica Irene looked at Global Mediacom (BMTR IJ). Jessica noted that there is  at least 40% potential upside from share price.  Current share price is just valuing their stake in MNCN, basically you are  getting their dominant pay TV business for free.  At 3% pay TV penetration this iz is going through hyper growth, arguably the gem for Global Mediacom

In our recent initiation of MNCN "Prime Time", we highlighted several reasons why we like the company. MNC is the largest free-to-air TV broadcaster in Indonesia with 37% audience share nationwide, trading at 13x 2011CL earnings. We think that media companies are proxy to the consumer sector and these companies are relatively under researched, giving it a reasonably cheap valuation.

Why BMTR over MNCN?

  • Cheaper entry to MNCN. 69% stake in MNCN is worth 97% of BMTR’s market cap.BHIT (the ultimate holding company) owns 51.27% of BMTR based on the latest 9M10 financial statements.
  • You get the BMTR pay TV business for free. BMTR owns 75% stake in Indovision, the country’s largest pay TV network in Indonesia. If we assign a 15x 2010 annualized EBITDA, the stake in pay TV business is worth Rp408/share.
  • Massive upside in Indo pay TV business. Pay TV is arguably the most interesting part of BMTR business. Pay TV penetration in Indonesia is still very low at 3%. Since the new management team in 2004, Indovision’s subscribers have grown tenfold from 80k to 800k. And Indovision’s commands a whopping 80% market share!
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 22.25

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