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Selasa, 11 Januari 2011

Credit Suisse Indonesia Bank Sector - Gauging the potential impact of a rate hike

  • We foresee risks of an uptick in inflation and policy rates but the uptrend is expected to be manageable and we expect the policy rate to remain below 10%.
  • Thus, we do not expect a significant downturn in loan growth. Like in the last manageable uptrend in policy rate, we expect banks’ earnings not to be severely impacted. Indeed, we believe that earnings growth outlook may remain positive on YoY basis.
  • Our sensitivity analysis indicates that BBCA is the biggest winner from a higher policy rate, followed by BMRI. Both banks’ earnings are expected to expand by 3.1-8.9% if the policy rate is increased by 100 bp.
  • Banks with stronger CASA franchise and lower LDR are likely to benefit during the period of a policy rate uptrend. We maintain OUTPERFORM on BMRI (on low LDR and high CASA) and on BBRI (despite its relatively higher LDR due to low CASA and relatively undemanding valuations). We maintain NEUTRAL on BBCA despite low LDR and high CASA, given its rich valuations
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 21.54

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