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Kamis, 13 Januari 2011

Credit Suisse PT Borneo Lumbung Energi & Metal Tbk In time to capture growth

  • We initiate coverage of PT Borneo Lumbung Energi & Metal Tbk (BORN).BORN has been commercially producing coking coals since September 2009 and is the only HCC producer in Indonesia. BORN is targeted  to produce 2.0 mtpa in 2010 and ramp up to 5 mtpa by 2012.

  • Highly leveraged to coal prices. BORN is one of the few pure HCC players in Asia directly exposed to HCC prices, which are at premium to other types of coking coal. We believe that BORN’s high exposure to spot prices will benefit it, especially in the next few months with the seasonal weather disruption causing strengthening in HCC spot prices. In addition, BORN has met its capacity expansion target of 3.6 mn t. We believe worries over tight mining fleet and equipment are now behind us, as BORN has the capacity to reach our 2011 volume forecasts of 3.5 mn t. It expects to further boost its capacity to 5 mn t by end-2011, which supports our 67% volume CAGR forecast between 2010 and 2012.

  • Catalysts: More mining fleet and logistic infrastructure are planned for 2011, which could bring capacity around further to 5 mn t or could boost volume above our forecasts and even management’s target at 4 mn t. Furthermore, prolonged rainy season, as forecast by Australian Bureau of Meteorology, may worsen the supply situation, pushing spot price higher than $250/t like in 2008 when JFY-08 settled at $300/t. Thus, there could be potential upside to our 2011 ASP forecast of $230/t.

  • OUTPERFORM, Rp2,200 target: We set our target price at Rp2,200 based on 18x 2011E P/E, at par with its coal peers. We believe there could be more upside to our volume, pricing and costs forecasts. The stock at Rp 1,670 is trading at 13.8x 2011E P/E based on our earnings forecasts. However, our sensitivity analysis based on the most bullish price and volume scenarios may well place its current share price in the 8.5-11.7x 2011E P/E range. Risks to our recommendation and target price include execution risks (given short historical track record), operating risks (prices, costs and volume) and regulatory risks (obtaining the required permits, agreements and approvals).
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 22.33

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