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Selasa, 11 Januari 2011

Deutsche Bank Harum Energy : Poised for growth; initiating with Buy

Harum Energy {Ticker: HRUM.JK, Closing Price: 9,700 IDR, Target Price: 11,200 IDR, Recommendation: Buy}
A top-ten producer with strong volume growth and spot exposure; Buy
Harum Energy (Harum) is well positioned to benefit from the rising coal prices amidst the floods affecting Australian supply, as it has one of the highest exposures to the rising spot prices in 2011F and superior production growth in the next two years. Its expansion is supported by experienced management, committed shareholders (over 20 years in the industry) and healthy balance sheet (US$80m net cash at 9M10). Initiating with a Buy.
Superior near-term production growth; infrastructure capacity in-place
The company expects to increase production at 35% CAGR in 2009-2011F, which compares favorably to peers’ 12% over the same period. Its existing processing capacity of 15mtpa is already in place to support 2012F production of 13.5mT, while mining is well supported by major contractor, Leighton. Additionally, Harum’s track record in delivering a 45% production CAGR (2007-2009) suggests that it could deliver on future growth.
Significant spot exposure; 1.9% EPS change for every 1% coal price change
We believe coal prices will likely remain elevated in the coming years, forecasting a benchmark coal price of US$115/t and US$135/t in 2011F and 2012F. Harum also has significant spot exposure, having only priced 25% of its 2011F volumes, implying 1.9% earnings sensitivity to every 1% change in spot coal price. We expect Harum to deliver earnings growth of 111% and 84% in 2011F and 2012F.
Target price of Rp11,200
Our target price implies a target 2012F PER of 8.1x, representing a 30% discount to the sector’s target PER of 11.8x, reflecting its relatively smaller reserve size. Our target price is supported by our DCF-based NPV, assuming a 60% premium to NPV, in line with the assumption for the sector. Key risks include commodity price fluctuations (coal or oil price), production disruptions/delays, limited reserves, domestic market obligations, contractor-related regulations and the ability to obtain the necessary license to commence production at the new mine.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 06.04

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