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Selasa, 11 Januari 2011

Mandiri Sekuritas ID (07-Jan-2011) ENRG: Masela Production is expected lower and is delayed for two years; MASA: revenue FY11F to grow by 25%yoy; ANTM: eyeing new gold mine

Energi Mega: Masela Production is expected lower and is delayed for two years (ENRG, Rp127, Buy, TP: Rp200)
􀂄 Inpex Corp., Masela’s operator, revealed that gas production in Masela PSC will be available on 2018, two years delay from the previous target. Moreover, potential LNG production is expected to be lower to 2.5 Mt from initial of 4.5 Mt. ENRG owns only 10% WI and still, this may impose negative outlook for ENRG, although the contribution will not as big as Kangean’s.
􀂄 Currently, ENRG rely on oil production of 2.5 mboepd from Kangean PUO field and 3.5 mboepd of gas from Bentu and Segat. We have not incorporated this delay to our forecast on ENRG.
􀂄 At Rp127, ENRG is currently traded at EV/2P US$1.4/boe, as a result of Masela’s 2P inclusion to ENRG total 2P reserves. Thus far, we still maintain our Buy recommendation with TP of Rp200

Multistrada Arah Sarana: revenue FY11F to grow by 25%yoy (MASA, Rp330, Buy, TP: Rp520)
􀂄 MASA is optimistic revenue growth in FY11F will grow by 25.0% yoy from Rp2.1tn in FY10F in line with production capacity expansion. Export is expected to contribute 75% of revenue.
􀂄 Production capacity for car tire is expected to reach 22.500 tire/day by end 1H11 from 17.500 tire/day by end 2010. Meanwhile, production capacity for motorcycle tire is expected to reach 16.000 tire/day by end 1H11 from 7.900 tire/day by end 2010.
􀂄 Around 70-80% from total production of car tire would be exported. Meanwhile, almost all of motorcycle tire production for domestic market.
􀂄 We have a buy recommendation on MASA. Currently, it is traded at PER11F of 10.7x.

Antam: eyeing new gold mine (ANTM,Rp 2,475, TP: Rp 2,700, Neutral)
􀂄 Antam will capture gold price hike momentum by increasing its gold production this year. Therefore Antam allocates US$ 15-20mn from its FY11F capex to acquire new gold mine.
􀂄 ANTM now expects gold production in FY11F only reached 3.7 – 3.8 tons, lower than previous target of 4tons since Cibaliung gold production in FY10 only reached 380kg below previous target of 500kg
􀂄 Currently we have neutral rating on the stock. ANTM trades at 15.3x -13.0 PER10F-11

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