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Jumat, 14 Januari 2011

Indopremier Securities COMPANY_NOTES ASRI Riding on the strong demand; initiate with BUY

We add ASRI to our property coverage universe with a BUY rating and Dec-2011 SOTP based resulting TP of IDR 430; 48.2% upside potential. ASRI is an established property developer with a track record in integrated township in Serpong area which provide the nearest access to Jakarta; targeting the upper-middle and high income segment. Despite its limited rooms for residential area, ASRI has seen strong pickup in new unit sales this year with new reservation for 9M10 up 108.18% YoY and current sales backlog of IDR 700bn implying 3 years of earning visibility.

Result highlights: Earnings were driven by the Serpong projects and newer commercial/apartments projects (Silkwood Apartment). Property gross margin remains at peak vs historical levels at 52% for FY10, increase from 40% for FY09 thanks to new interchange road that has been completed at km 15.4 along JORR 2 Jakarta-Merak toll road. Silkwood apartment has achieved total property sales of IDR 72bn in FY10 and will contribute materially to earnings from FY11 on.

We forecast 5 years sales and EBITDA CAGR of 26% and 27%, respectively. We expect revenue growth will generate from recurring income over the next 3-5 years. Currently, ASRI plans to build the same project schemes in Pasar Kemis area and potential build up in sales momentum post launch would be one key trigger for a potential re-rating of the stock.

TP and valuation: Our Dec-11 TP of IDR 430 is based on SOTP valuation, and implies a FY11F P/B of 2.89x. Key risk: 1) timing difference between scheduled and actual delivery of projects, 2) potential risk of customer sales cancellations post launch of the new projects, 3) unfavorable of new credit financing schemes.

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