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Kamis, 13 Januari 2011

Deutsche Bank ank Mandiri - Potential recovery of US$161-236m from Garuda divestment

We have attended Garuda Indonesia's public announcement re: its IPO plan, which will be completed on 11th Feb 2011. Currently, Mandiri holds approx 1.9bn shares in Garuda, which would represent 7.5% of the company's enlarged capital. Based on Garuda's IPO price range of Rp750-1,100, we estimate that proceeds to Mandiri could reach Rp1.5-2.1tr (or US $161-236m) - see table below for more details.

We believe that the recovery should be reflected in Mandiri's 2011 earnings. At present, our current forecasts do not take into account any recovery gain from the Garuda divestment. Based on our existing forecasts, the potential gain could represent 11.7-17.2% of DB's FY2011 pre-rights issue profit before tax estimates of Rp12.4tr. Based on a 9M10 capital base, the post-tax gain would raise CAR by 38-56bps to 13.7-13.9% and BVPS (as of 9M10) by 2.8-4.1%.

Recent sell down based on concerns over rising inflation (and subsequent BI rate increases) are overblown, in our view. Mandiri remains fundamentally sound. Amongst major banks, the bank is one of the primary beneficiaries from higher rates as it has twice the amount offloating-rate earnings assets to floating-rate funding. The bank's low cost of funds and excess liquidity should allow it to gain loan market shares. Amongst major banks, Mandiri is the only bank with four strong subsidiaries (insurance, finance, micro bank and auto finance). As in our 17th Aug 2010 report "Small but faster growing subsidiaries", we have estimated that their combined three year earnings Cagr should be 60%.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 22.10

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