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Selasa, 11 Januari 2011

CLSA Bank Sector Outlook

Analyst Bret Ginesky is putting forth his thoughts on the sector for 2011. Loan growth above 25%, healthy deposit gathering, and fund raising for Bank Negara and Bank Mandiri underpins his OWT call on the sector. 

Bret also argues that higher quality banks such as BCA tend to OPF the market in an higher inflationary environment.  Indonesian banks remain very healthy and we agree with the OWT call on the medium-long term horizon.  But with continued focus on inflation, bank share price will likely continue to take a hitin the immediate future.

Key points:

  • Looking into 2011 we anticipate a continuation of strong system loan growth (+25%) driving revenues. Deposit gathering should face limited pressure as well with only slight rate expansion as new capital has limited the need for funding, implying limited NIM downside.
  • Two of the largest banks are completing capital raises that will provide ample liquidity to fund loan growth. While central bank policy has tightened bank liquidity and inflation is higher, we expect increased infrastructure spending and a 16.7% (from 13.7% in ’10) rise in nominal GDP to drive lending expansion in 2011.
  • Inflation at nearly 7% has continued to move higher driven by food prices and commodity prices placing some pressure on BI to raise rates. Higher rates would be positive for BCA, Mandiri and BNI, and banks tend to slightly outperform the JCI in an inflationary environment.
  • Banks, particularly higher quality banks tend to outperform the JCI in an inflationary environment as the chart below indicates. We would note that 2008 is likely a more reflective timeframe for Mandiri as in 2005 it had not completed its transformation. Higher rates would be positive for BCA, Mandiri and BNI as they are the most asset sensitive banks in Indonesia.
  • Our top picks across market caps are large cap Bank Mandiri, mid cap Bank Negara and small cap Bank Jabar going into 2011. We believe Mandiri and BNI’s catalysts are excess capital, strong loan growth, a 5% tax break and likelihood of a haircut provision on written off loans.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 05.58

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