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Kamis, 13 Januari 2011

Samuel Sekuritas Coal Sector - The Black Diamond (Maintain Overweight)

·Robust global coal price due to supply constraint. Severe weather condition and floods in Australia’s Queensland state, which is the worst in the last 50 years, has disrupted supply of coking coal, prompting half of Queensland included BHP Biliton Ltd and Rio Tinto Group to declare force majeure, a legal clause that allows mines to miss deliveries. Queensland represents well over 35% of Australia’s coal exports estimated 259 mn. Australia accounts for two-third of global exports of coking coal. Flooding is also affecting thermal coal, driving the price of supplies at the Newcastle port to US$129.9/ton, the most since Oct 2008, up by 42% YoY.
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Reiterate positive view on thermal coal price. We remain positive on thermal coal prices given tighter supply and demand balance. We expect thermal coal market will be in deficit by around 11 mn ton this year. Morever, supply disruption over the winter/rainy season could lead to large spike in coal prices. While there are concerns that China’s demand will be lower due to power restriction to meet energy efficiency, but we see demand from Indian and Indonesian domestic demand remain strong. India’s import is expected to grow to 108 mn ton in 2012 (from 75 mn ton in 2010) while Indonesia’s demand will increase from 62 mn ton in 2010 to 90 mn ton in 2012.
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  Coal price upgrades. We have raised our thermal coal prices forecasts to US$115/ton in 2011 and US$105/ton in 2012. With recent Xstrata December coal settlement with the Japanese power plant concluded at US$115/ton, we believe our price assumption is reasonable. On our revised forecast, we upgraded earning estimates BUMI by 32.7% and 32.8%, ADRO by 5.4% and 24.8% and PTBA by17.3% and 24.2%, respectively in FY11-12. Our sensitivity analysis shows that BUMI is the most sensitive to coal price fluctuation. Every 5% increase in coal price will lift BUMI’s earning by 14.4%, ADRO by 11.3% and PTBA by 10.1%.
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 Overweight the sector, top pick: ADRO. Currently Indonesia coal sector is trading at 13.5x PER’11, relatively the same with sector historical trading average of 13x. Our top pick for coal sector is Adaro given its robust production outlook, low production cost and buoyant coal price. We have upgraded ADRO to Rp3,250 (from Rp2,800), BUMI to Rp3,950 (from Rp3,250) and PTBA to Rp27,500 (from 22,500).
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 22.28

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