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Selasa, 11 Januari 2011

Bahana Sekuritas Mitra Adiperkasa - On course (MAPI-BUY-IDR2,325-TP:IDR3,200)

11M10 sales growth on target; 16% price fall = BUYing opportunity Our phone conversation with the management of Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI) reveals that the company has booked 11M10 sales growth of 14% y-y, slightly higher than our estimate of 13% y-y estimate for the full-year 2010.  Meanwhile, the recent market carnage has resulted in MAPI’s share price having plunged 16% since the beginning of the year, underperforming the market by 9.5% due to the company’s relative lack of liquidity.  Trading on 2011 PE of 13.7x and P/ Sales of 0.7x, 30% discount to the Indonesian retail sector (exhibit 6), we believe there is value in MAPI and we believe investors should begin to bottom fish.  We reiterate our BUY recommendation with IDR3,200 target price, reflecting still a reasonable 1.0x P/ Sales, compared to the current regional average of 3.0x P/ Sales.

New brands: He Mango, Berskha, Stradivarius & Payless MAPI continues to cement its status as Indonesia’s brand king through its ability to continually new brands.  In 2011, the company plans to open two He Mango stores in Plaza Indonesia and Central Park.  Through the Zara Group (Inditex), MAPI has obtained two new brands: Berskha (young and funky) and Stradivarius (casual), also to be opened in Plaza Indonesia and Central Park.  Additionally, the company is also planning to open 15 Payless stores this year, starting in March/April period.

40,000sqm of new floor space in 2011 to support growth Up to November 2010, MAPI had 418,910sqm of floor space, comprised of 828 outlets (643 specialty stores, 153 F&B, 29 department stores and 3 Kinokuniya book stores).  This is up from 574 specialty stores at the end of 2009, 117 F&B, 25 department stores and 4 Kinokuniya.  Going forward, the company plans to add 100-125 specialty stores, 75 F&B and 1 department store either in Kuningan area in South Jakarta or Surabaya, East Java.  This will amount to 40,000sqm in floor space, translating to IDR350b in capex.

Brand acquisition (Linea) and termination (Salvatore Ferragamo) The management of MAPI is continually fine tuning its brand portfolio, which is the right strategy in our view amid an ever-changing retail landscape.  In January 2010, the company has acquired Linea, multi-branded up-market shoe stores with 10 outlets.  This is in line with the company’s strategy to strengthen its presence in Indonesia’s growing shoes business.  On the flip side, MAPI has terminated its contract with Salvatore Ferragamo at the end of December 2010.  The brand, with two stores at Plaza Indonesia and Grand Indonesia, has been taken over by the Para Group, which has been adding more up-market brands to its existing portfolio of Prada, Tod’s, Aigner, Jimmy Choo and Hugo Boss.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 21.58

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