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Selasa, 11 Januari 2011

UBS INDO TLKM Potential miss in Q4

􀂄 We now think Q4 is likely to disappoint
We now forecast Telkomsel to post a -1% QoQ versus previously +3% QoQ revenue growth in Q4 2010 (to be published March 2011). Our visit to shops last month indicated that Telkomsel’s “Kartu As” brand has not garnered much interest from dealers and customers despite aggressive promotion. Upon further channel
checks, we now think Telkomsel’s aggressive promotion in October has backfired as existing subscribers switched to new promotion (cannibalisation) and not generating sufficient elasticity.

􀂄 Below consensus, but market has moved
Our new EPS of Rp586 for 2010E and Rp613 for 2011E are 3% and 7% below consensus, respectively. We think the market has moved ahead of consensus, as Telkom share price declined by a total of 8% in the past two days.

􀂄 What to do now?
Given the share price’ recent steep decline, we think downside is likely to be limited at this point. However, we remain uncertain of near term positive catalyst, as 1)The potential miss in Q4 likely to remain an overhang until result is officially published, 2)Q1 is generally a weak quarter for Indo telcos, and 3)Telkomsel is likely to undergo a management change soon (could create uncertainty).

􀂄 Valuation: lower price target from Rp9,800 to Rp9,500
We derive our price target from a DCF-based methodology and explicitly forecast long-term valuation drivers with UBS’s VCAM tool.

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