Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Jumat, 12 Agustus 2011

BBRI Micro lending still the key - BNP Paribas

ƒ BRI continues to increase micro lending activity
ƒ We expect NPL to decline in 4Q11
ƒ BRI's 2011E ROE of 30% is the highest in our bank universe
ƒ We raise TP to IDR8,000, maintain BUY

Increases micro lending further
Bank Rakyat (BRI) has guided to increase micro lending, which accounted for 31.6%
of total loans as at June 2011, up from 27.4% a year ago. Its exposure to
corporate lending has reached 19.9% of total loans, close to its limit of 20%. Total loans increased 19% y-y in June 2011 with micro loans up 37% y-y and
corporate loans up 24%. Loans to small enterprises grew 2% y-y but those to
medium enterprises fell 7% y-y. This loan composition helped improve net interest
margin (NIM) to 9.8% in 2Q11, from 8.8% in 1Q11, with cumulative NIM of 9.2% in 1H11 vs. 9.4% in 1H10.

NPL to decline in 4Q11E
Non-performing loans (NPLs) increased to 3.6% in June, from 3.1% in March, due to rising problem loans in the corporate, medium and small commercial segments. Management indicated that the bank expects NPL to rise further in 3Q11 but should drop in 4Q11. We believe this can be achieved through write-offs and improvement in some of the problem loans. This cycle was similar to the one recorded in 2009 and 2010. BRI wrote-off IDR2.5t in 2009 and IDR5.0t in 2010, representing 1.2% and
2.0% of the year-end outstanding loans. Meanwhile, NPL in micro lending is now at 1.6%, up from 1.5% in March 2011. Given the track record, we do not expect NPL in micro loans to surpass 2%, the level which was last recorded in 2005.

ROE remains the highest in our bank universe
Supported by high NIM and managed operating costs, we expect BRI to maintain its high ROE of 31.9% in 2011 and 30.5% in 2012. Although this level may not be sustainable in the long term, we believe BRI will still record one of the highest ROEs in our sector universe, at 28-30% in the next three years.

TP raised to IDR8,000, maintain BUY
We raise our EPS forecasts by 2% for 2011 and 3% for 2012, on the back of a slight change in loan composition towards micro lending, resulting in higher margins and lower provisioning charges. Rolling over our valuation base to 2012E, we adjust our TP to IDR8,000 (IDR7,300 previously), valuing the stock at a target 3.3x P/B (using GGM model, which assumes ROE of 26.5%, cost of capital 12.5% and growth rate 6.5%). Risk to our TP is a rapid increase in interest rate, which may affect asset quality

Tidak ada komentar:

Posting Komentar