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Selasa, 09 Agustus 2011

Defensive gem Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ) – steady execution leads to more toll roads - CLSA

This dominant toll road operator is the best defensive play in the country. JSMR is 100% domestic exposure and a great inflation hedge (80% of its toll roads will get a tariff hike this quarter). With one of the strongest management team and good execution, JSMR continues to deliver: 1) road widening on popular toll roads 2) new launch of toll road and 3) acquisition of new toll road concessions.

Average cost of debt has fallen from 13.6% in 2006 to 10.4% currently. We expect cost of debt to drop further as Rp1.7tn of existing bonds (around 12-13%) will be due for refinancing in 2013 (banks are offering 8% to JSMR). Our 11.5% cost of debt assumption is conservative for a business that has low gearing and great cash flow.

Analyst Sarina has been banging on the table on this one – we are 12% ahead of earnings consensus. With strong 1H numbers released and an even better 2H expected, given the festivity season, anticipate the street to catch up and upgrade earnings. Reiterate BUY.

Key Points from the report:

· JSMR 1H11 revenue and profit rose 12% and 16% YoY, respectively. 1H11 net profit came at 48% of our FY forecast and 53% of consensus.
· 2H11 traffic usually 51% of FY.
· Widening on key toll roads (Jakarta- Tangerang and Jagorawi which contribute in total 26% of overall traffic volumes), mean further volume upside.
· Tariff increase for 11 out of their 13 toll roads will happen after Eid ul-Fitr (31 August, 2011). Margins will expand further.
· Initial sections of two toll projects (Semarang-Solo and Surabaya-Mojokerto) will be operational post Eid ul-Fitr as expected; a total of 14km.
· JSMR is finalizing another toll concession acquisition in Greater Surabaya, second largest city in Indonesia. JSMR acquired Gempol-Pandaan toll road (13.6km) in Apr 2011.
· It is becoming a prominent toll road operator in Greater Surabaya with a total of 133km.
· Cost of debt has fallen from 13.6% in 2006 to 10.4% currently.
· ROE of 14.7% is higher than peer’s average.

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