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Jumat, 12 Agustus 2011

Bakrie Sumatera (UNSP IJ; CP: IDR395; HOLD) Target Price: IDR460 - BNP Paribas

Key issues
ƒ The debt restructuring process on ex-Domba Mas oleochemical plant was completed last month. The management expects the Kuala Tanjung Line 1 facilities will start production soon. In the next 3-9 months, the management is targeting to start up commercial production for the remaining Kuala Tanjung facilities.
ƒ While BSP enjoyed strong CPO production growth of 36% y-y in 1H11, its homegrown rubber production was down 8% y-y mainly due to aging tree profile and replanting programmes which resulted in 5% decline on rubber mature hectarage in 1H11. Rubber production is expected to remain flat until 2012 due to replanting.
ƒ The BSP Greenfield Project (11,133 ha) in Central Kalimatan will start its first
production this year, and BSP will build new CPO mill next year.

Questions raised
ƒ What is the performance of the oleochemical business so far? As of 5M11, oleo revenue reached IDR169b, which mainly comes from the Tanjung Morawa Fatty Acid plant.
ƒ When do you expect the oleochemical business to operate at full capacity? With the completion of the debt restructuring process, the Kuala Tanjung facilities are expected to enter the production stage soon, and the remaining facility will be ready in the next 3-9 months. The best year would be 2013, when the whole facility is expected to run at full capacity.

Current view
ƒ While the debt restructuring of the oleo plant has been completed, we think the execution risk is still high which could disappoint the market. The new oleo business has been anticipated by the market as the main growth booster for BSP, but during the process, some delays on the debt restructuring has hampered the re-commissioning of the whole facility. Any more delays on the earnings delivery from this business could further increase the discount factor to BSP valuation. HOLD maintained with TP of IDR460.

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