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Jumat, 12 Agustus 2011

Cement Sector: Domestic cement consumption continues upbeat, grew by 17.1% YoY (Overweight) - Mandiri

􀂄 Domestic cement sales continue showing strong growth. Jul11 sales grew 17.1% YoY and 6.8% MoM, lifted by area outside Java (18.3% YoY) where its growth outperformed Java (16.1% YoY), first time in the year. Notable sales growth includes Nusa Tenggara where picked-up strongly by 26.2% YoY (vs. Jun11 7.7% YoY), combined with other commodity regions, including Sumatera (14.5% YoY), Kalimantan (19.6% YoY) and Sulawesi (21.4% YoY).
􀂄 Thus, domestic cumulative sales accelerated to 26.8mn tons, reaching a new high of +15.1% YoY vs. 6M11 of +14.8% YoY.
􀂄 We may see rather softened growth in August, following fasting period which similar trend occurs at least in the past 5 years.
􀂄 Looking at major support from bulk segments on sales this year, we view that growth can be more sustained towards year end, thus led us to upgrade our 11F domestic cement sales growth to 7.5% YoY, from initially 5.6%.
􀂄 Our favorites are still INTP and SMCB in cement space, given its high exposure in Jakarta and West Java which have been the main bulk cement growth area, in our view.

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